Today
morning, 14 February 2022 (Happy Valentines To You All BTW) marked day one of
trading with new insight acquired after the first 2 weeks of Live Forex Account
Trading. I must say it went well, I was more relaxed throughout the day, even
though I had opened 3 trades in the morning, and news outlets were just talking
about Ukraine-Russia tensions. Safe-Haven currencies were my Valentine’s date.
St. Louise Fed Chair, Bullard spoke today on CNBC from 1630 GMT +3 but the markets seem to be bothered with
him anymore. Only last week Thursday, 10th February 2022, did he make remarks
on proposals of 100 basis points Fed rate hike by July 2022, the markets ‘cared’
at the time, but not today. The ‘shine’ of interest rates, inflation, central
banks’ comments have been stolen by the geopolitics of Ukraine-Russia politics.
The news outlets are feeding us with a seesaw of info regarding
the matter, one moment they are telling us the matter could be resolved without conflict, and the next squawk is
shouting WAR! WAR! WAR!. Common on guys, we know
your mantra is ‘if it bleeds, it leads…’, but chill.
We are
still trying to know what Corona is, with its many mutations.
Citizens
of the World, Let’s choose our struggle wisely
Running To Safe-Haven Currencies
Enough
of the mini-rant, back to our trading, (but still, our leaders should not be
proposing war like it’s child’s play, let them go to their meetings and discuss
this issue). Now I’m done ranting for good.
In
normal trading circumstances, when studying the charts on Sundays, the study
starts from Weekly to Daily then to 4 Hour charts. Most of the time, Weekly
charts are very slow to show a change of trend, followed by Daily char, and
finally, the 4 Hour charts are very fast in telling if there is a trend change.
To show it better, the trend change speed can look like below:
Weekly
>> Daily >>> 4-Hour Charts.
This
was not the case today. The analysis showed USD was the strongest. For the
weekly trends to change that fast, well, there has to be an issue. The
weakest in the weekly analysis was NZD. \
The
daily charts were more granular and showed JPY, CHF, and USD were the strongest
with each having a score of 5/2. Strong against 5, and weak against 2. The 2
‘weaks’ (settle down English teacher) for the three was amongst the 3 e.g. USD
was strong against EUR, GBP, NZD, CAD, AUD, but weak against CHF, JPY, and Gold
(Still not confident to trade commodities, metals and gas… But I am gathering
the data, Baby Steps Young Padawan)
4-hour
charts were even more granular. JPY was strongest (7/0), followed by USD (6/1).
Strangely CAD was stronger than CHF with the former having 5/2 and the latter
having 3 /4. We all the strange safe haven of CHF. This currency has a mind of
its own.
NZD was
the weakest with 0/7 followed by AUD 1/6.
I had mentioned the major currency crosses I trade in my first blog.
USDCHF Buy (Clash Of The Safe-Haven)
Took
this trade for a number of reasons:
·
USD was stronger than CHF from the analysis. 6/1 vs 3 /4
·
The price had been on top the Kumo cloud for 5 days at the time
of the trade.
·
Price was above the Daily CPR.
Cons of
this Trade
·
Price has closed below the Daily CPR on the Daily Chart
·
QQE, BBSqueeze, Vortex, and TSV are all showing Short Signals.
By end of day 14th Feb,
the pair has more cons but since it has not touched the Kumo, I will let it be.
On the
Fundamentals side of things, if things go bad, I think guys will jump to USD as
CHF has a ‘bad’ reputation in the speculation world.
The
trade is negative 80 points at the time of writing this post.
USDCHF
Buy
AUDUSD Sell (Comdoll vs Safe-Haven)
Reasons
for this trade.
·
Price was below Kumo cloud.
·
Price was below Daily CPR.
·
Chikou Span is below Candles.
Cons of
this trade.
·
QQE, BBSqueeze, TSV, forex entry point, and Vortex are all
indicating Long.
Trade
is negative 80 points at the time of writing this post.
Yikes,
so far the cons are more than the trade reasons for these 2 trades.
AUDUSD
Sell
NZDCAD Sell Trade (Trade Analysis Strength vs Weakness Trade)
Reason
for trade.
NZD was
the weakest in 4-Hour charts (0/7) vs the third strongest currency 5/2.
Reasons
for this trade. They are similar to AUDCAD. This simply takes a 2% risk of
comdoll vs safe haven as the 2 currency pairs are positively correlated.
Ideally,
the best risk should be 1%, but hey, we had said instead of risking with high
lot size, let’s risk 1% with many currency pairs. Of course with the knowledge
of correlation.
·
Price was below Kumo cloud.
·
Price was below Daily CPR.
·
Chikou Span is below Candles.
Cons of
this trade.
·
QQE, BBSqueeze, TSV, forex entry point, and Vortex are all
indicating Long.
Same as
the first 2 trades, the cons are more than the pros of the trade.
NZDCAD
Sell
What Gives?
The 3 trades have more cons than pros, but the trades are still
on. Referring to the immediately previous post, 2022 seems to be a year where fundamentals will have a strong
impact on speculative instruments.
Let us
look at the quoted cons below:
QQE,
BBSqueeze, TSV, forex entry point, and Vortex are all indicating Long.
The
quote above means price has steadily been moving to a Long bias, hence QQE
crossing to buy-side, BBSqueeze steadily moving to buy, forex entry point
indicating buy, same as TSV and vortex. These indicators are lagging in nature,
meaning the Buy trade conditions have taken time to develop.
All
that Buy setup was all undone by one news release on a Friday evening.
This
explains the confusion the markets have shown today. At some point, all the
three currency pairs were positive 500 points then moved to negative 500
points. The choppiness was galore.
What I
am noticing (now that I am deliberate with technical, fundamental, and
sentiment analysis), the markets were used to certain conditions (some form of
equilibrium) but the Friday news has brought new parameters that have not yet
been factored in.
It’s
like we are back in the days of Donald Trump Tweets. Oh well, his friend wants
to take up from where his friend left off.
Yo! If
I die mysteriously, check the autopsy for poisoning… heheheh
Trade Space – Stop-Loss Placement
Another
thing that I have employed today in addition to more emphasis on safe-haven
currencies is considering more space for my trade. As you ask, the EA
calculates stop-loss placement of ATR time 2. With a lot size of 0.01, it adds
up to exactly 1% of the account per trade. Today I was more relaxed.
ATR
times 2 seems a lot, especially the GBPAUD trade, it showed a stop loss of
almost 5000 points. I guess that is why I ran to AUDUSD. GBP and CHF are ‘big
boys’ currencies I tell you.
Always
learning new things my friends. Live money trading is something I tell you.
My Watchlist
I am
following up on GBPAUD for a buy trade. The price is hugging the Daily CPR. I
wanted to take the trade in the morning but settled for an AUDUSD sell. The
pair moved in a choppy way as well, positive 500 points, negative 500 points.
Give
this pair more time. Say tomorrow 1100H GMT +3.
So,
today like all the other trading days, we have learned a new thing. How to
study how the sentiment/fundamentals are strong. How one news event has
countered days of market structure/formation?
GBPAUD Buy Consideration As Pair is Hugging the CPR On The Ups Side
How I
View the Charts With Less Stuff (But Ichimoku Can Seem Cluttered If Not Used To
It)
That’s
all for today. I would love to get your opinions in the comment section or the
forums.
May the
markets be fair to our trades!
%20(1)%20(1)%20(1)%20(1)%20(1).jpg)
0 Comments